Skip to main content

News and events

09.22.2025

Strategically NEUTRAL on govies

We switch to a strategically NEUTRAL position on USTs
We switch to a strategically NEUTRAL position on USTs (from CONSTRUCTIVE with a negative outlook previously). While current yield levels remain historically appealing, barring a sudden slowdown in economic momentum (which is not our baseline), we believe there is very little room (if any) for yields to decline from current levels. In fact, we see risks skewed more towards higher rates from here, for the following reasons:
1) We expect growth to re-accelerate in 2026, though it will remain moderately below potential.
2) Upside risks to inflation are likely to be priced in, at least during H1 2026.
3) We expect a dovish-leaning Fed to cut rates to slightly below neutral by Q3 2026, with risks of an even quicker adjustment. This represents a more aggressive pace of easing than warranted by our macro-outlook.
4) We anticipate an increase in the political risk premium embedded in USTs.
5) Supply pressures are expected to accelerate in 2026.
The main risk to our strategic NEUTRAL positioning on USTs is a further deterioration in the macroeconomic outlook, with the US economy possibly flirting with recession, a scenario that would justify an accelerated rate-cutting cycle. In such a case, the macro-outlook would become the main driver of government bond performance, leading to a decline in 10Y UST yields well below 4%.
On Bunds, we remain STRATEGICALLY NEUTRAL. With EA growth expected to accelerate in 2026 and Bund supply rising sharply, the medium-term bias for Bund yields remains upward, although strong demand for EA government bonds is likely to partially offset this pressure.
On BTPs, we remain STRATEGICALLY NEUTRAL. The high and positive correlation with Bunds suggests an upward bias for BTP yields in the medium term. That said, we expect solid demand for BTPs (driven by attractive yields and a steeper curve relative to Bunds) and an improvement in the fiscal outlook to offset at least some of the upward pressure.

CHIARA CREMONESI
Senior Rates Strategist

Download full document​


Marketing material for professional clients or qualified investors only. 
This material does not constitute an advice, an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any investment or security or to engage in any investment strategy or transaction. ANIMA can in no way be held responsible for any decision or investment made based on information contained in this document. The data and information contained in this document are deemed reliable, but ANIMA assumes no liability for their accuracy and completeness.
ANIMA accepts no liability whatsoever, whether direct or indirect, that may arise from the use of information contained in this material in violation of this disclaimer and the relevant provisions of the Supervisory Authorities.
This is a marketing communication. Please refer to the Prospectus, the KID, the Application Form and the Governing Rules (“Regolamento di Gestione”) before making any final investment decisions. These documents, which also describe the investor rights, can be obtained at any time free of charge on ANIMA website (www.animasgr.it). Hard copies of these documents can also be obtained from ANIMA upon request. The KIDs are available in the local official language of the country of distribution. The Prospectus is available in Italian/English. Past performances are not an indicator of future returns. The distribution of the​ product is subject to the assessment of suitability or adequacy required by current regulations. ANIMA reserves the right to amend the provided information at any time. The value of the investment and the resulting return may increase or decrease and, upon redemption, the investor may receive an amount lower than the one originally invested.
In case of collective investment undertakings distributed cross-border, ANIMA is entitled to terminate the provisions set for their marketing pursuant to Article 93 Bis of Directive 2009/65/EC.​






Chosen for you