News and events

05.19.2025

UST Back to fundamentals

We remain tactically NEUTRAL. We shifted mechanically to NEUTRAL from MODERATELY LONG at the end of April, as 10Y UST yields fell below our take-profit level of 4.20%. Strategically, we remain CONSTRUCTIVE with a NEGATIVE Outlook.



We remain tactically NEUTRAL. We shifted mechanically to NEUTRAL from MODERATELY LONG at the end of April, as 10Y UST yields fell below our take-profit level of 4.20%.

We still believe the next move will be upward. However, compared to last month, the forces driving this shift have broadened:

1. Trade tensions are de-escalating rapidly. While the new global trade equilibrium is likely to be less favourable than during the pre-US election period, it appears significantly more functional than the scenario once threatened by the Trump administration on Liberation Day.

2. As a corollary to point 1, we believe that concerns over de-dollarisation have declined significantly among global investors. This removes the pain threshold ceiling of 4.50%, at which we would previously have expected either the Fed intervention or a policy reversal by the US administration. In other words, as the risk of the 
US losing its safe-haven status has receded, partly due to President Trump’s softer tariff stance, we expect UST yields to resume trading “freely”, driven by market and macroeconomic factors, rather than fears of a secular shift in global asset allocation preferences.

3. Building on point 1, we have revised down the projected likelihood of a US recession from 45% to 25-30%. At the same time, while our baseline forecast still anticipates a slowdown, we now see the risks as tilted to the upside.

4. Although significantly reduced, the remaining tariffs are still expected to slow the pace of inflation convergence towards target, compared to expectations prior to the election.

5. We expect market focus to shift to the upcoming Budget. In this context, there is a risk that the already unfavourable supply/ demand balance in USTs could deteriorate further, depending on the final version of the budget bill currently under discussion in Congress.

6. While market expectations for the Fed have aligned with both our view and the Fed’s own guidance, anticipating two rate cuts this year, down from four at the end of April, we do not rule out the 
possibility that the market could adopt an even more hawkish stance, particularly if incoming data and/or fiscal policy surprises to the upside. Given this backdrop, we are raising the threshold at which we would begin to gradually accumulate exposure to 4.70-4.80% (previously. 4.50-4.60%). However, we believe the risks around this level remain skewed to the upside.

Strategically, we remain CONSTRUCTIVE with a NEGATIVE outlook, as a more accommodative than expected fiscal stance could drive an increase in the term premium. 

We believe the strategic outlook remains highly uncertain and may evolve depending on future developments in both the growth trajectory and fiscal policy.


CHIARA CREMONESI 
Senior Rates Strategist





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