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Outlook
News found: 113
Investment Outlook
MOVE ON
On rates, we maintain our tactical LONG stance on USTs, Bunds and BTPs, while raising the bar for both adding exposure and moving to NEUTRAL. We upgrade our strategic stance to POSITIVE. On equities, we upgrade our tactical stance to LONG (from NEUTRAL), supported by resilient Q2 results. On FX, we remain tactically and strategically NEUTRAL on EUR/USD and DXY.
08.31.26
Macro Outlook
GOING BY THE LEOPARD BOOK
Consistent with our "Leopard" narrative, US growth has proved resilient but not overheated thus far, running modestly above its potential rate. Looking ahead to 2027, we expect the broad contours of our macroeconomic baseline to remain largely unchanged. We expect the EA economy to remain resilient throughout 2027, maintaining a growth path consistent with the 2026 trend.
08.31.26
Rates strategy
Taking stock of our EGB strategic views
We turn strategically POSITIVE on Bunds, as current real yields price in most growth/supply risks, breakeven should be near their tops, and falling inflation should allow 1–2 ECB cuts in H2 2027. Within EGBs, we are UNDERWEIGHT OATs given persistent fiscal/political risks, while we are OVERWEIGHT SPGBs on strong Spanish growth and easier fiscal discipline. We remain strategically NEUTRAL on BTPs with a positive outlook, supported by Bunds, but are more cautious than on SPGBs given upcoming Italian electoral risks.
08.28.26
Equity strategy
LONG AGAIN
We upgrade our tactical stance to LONG (from NEUTRAL), supported by resilient Q2 results.
Dark stock market dashboard showing red and green line charts, ticker values, and percentage changes, conveying active financial 08.28.26
Other
(NEVER)MIND THE GAP
The BEA planned methodological changes are likely to lower measured core PCE inflation and improve consistency between PCE and CPI inflation.
08.28.26