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09.24.2026

Turning strategically negative DXY and positive JPY

Strategically, we switch to a NEGATIVE position on DXY (from NEUTRAL) and to a POSITIVE position on the yen.

Strategically, we switch to a NEGATIVE position on DXY (from NEUTRAL), as the macroeconomic and monetary policy outlook, as well as policy and fiscal uncertainty. should weigh on the USD performance in the medium-term.

According to our BEER model, the EUR is overvalued. This, coupled with expectations of continued disinflation in 2027, a possible dovish shift by the ECB in H2 2027, and political uncertainty (especially in anticipation of French and Italian elections) should weigh on the common currency. Against this backdrop, we remain strategically NEUTRAL on EUR-USD, as we believe that, in the medium-term, the negative factors for the EUR and the USD may offset each other.

We think that the tide has turned on the JPY, as the BoJ has turned more hawkish, there is a strong political willingness to defend the yen, and the probability of repatriation is now higher than in the previous months. Against this backdrop, we strategically position ourselves short on USD-JPY.​

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Chiara Cremonesi 
Senior Rates Strategist 

Mattia Banin 
Junior Macro Analyst 


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