News and events

05.19.2025

US AND CHINA: SEEK TO DE-ESCALATE THE TRADE STAND OFF

Following a meeting in Geneva, the US and China reached an unexpected temporary agreement to substantially reduce reciprocal tariffs for a 90-day period.

​​We interpret this development as a positive signal towards a potential broader and long-lasting trade agreement between the two countries. Based on this, we believe tariffs on Chinese goods could be reduced to an effective range of 45–55%, down from 145% after Liberation Day. Consequently, we are raising our baseline growth forecast for China in 2025 to 4.7% from 4.2%, as we now expect exports to pose less of a drag on growth. However, we caution that the outcome of this 90-day “grace period” remains uncertain: the bar to achieve a meaningful and lasting trade deal is high, and it may take longer than 90 days.



1. US-China trade: 90-day grace period to strike a deal

Both countries have unexpectedly agreed to ease tariffs on each other’s goods. Under the terms of the agreement, the US will lower tariffs on most Chinese imports from 145% to an effective 40%, while China will cut duties on American products from 125% to an effective 28% (Figure 1). This coordinated action is aimed at easing trade tensions and offers both sides a 90-day window to continue negotiations on economic and trade issues. A framework has also been established to support ongoing dialogue. While the agreement represents an unexpected step forward in de-escalating the trade conflict, it remains unclear what outcomes would be acceptable to both parties or how long a permanent solution may take. China has previously demanded the removal of all US tariffs imposed this year,  a condition we believe is unlikely to be met.




VALERIO CEOLONI 
Senior EM/FX Strategist 



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