The first six months of 2025 were anything but uneventful. Various forces came into conflict, creating a general sense of uncertainty comparable only to that experienced during the Covid pandemic.
Donald Trump began his term with a significant coercive action, which, turned out to be more aggressive on a multilateral level than anticipated.
Geopolitically, the war between Russia and Ukraine is far from being resolved quickly, contrary to what President Trump had anticipated, and tensions in the Middle East, thought to be easing by some analysts, have once again escalated dramatically following the outbreak of conflict between Iran and Israel and American military intervention.
Yet, despite the initial circumstances, the broader macroeconomic outlook has proven remarkably resilient, particularly in the United States.
We expect the second half of 2025 to follow a largely similar path. On one hand, it is reasonable to assume that the Trump Administration will continue to dominate head-lines, keeping market attention high but limiting the appetite for one-sided engagement. On the other hand, despite some volatility, the macroeconomic outlook is likely to show a sustained consumer spending and a gradual convergence of inflation to-wards the target.
Against this macro backdrop, we maintain our base case scenario, which sees central banks continuing to ease their restrictive measures and pursue a cycle of rate cuts that remains 2disinflationary".
In light of these considerations, our central scenario for 2025 remains broadly aligned with the one described in late 2024, including in terms of risk.
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