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07.21.2025

Decelerating not stopping

At this stage, the balance of risks appears fairly balanced.


We are turning tactically NEUTRAL (from previously LONG). We expect the forceful equity rally that started in April to pause through August.

The tailwinds (including still solid company fundamentals, ongoing dollar weakness, and a supportive macro backdrop) are potentially offset by headwinds – such as a less responsive market reaction to further geopolitical easing, rich valuations and adverse seasonality.

Against this backdrop, we recommend a less aggressive stance, expecting investor participation to slow down after the initial stage of the reporting season. From a regional perspective, the US remains our preferred market due to better earnings revisions and continued improvement in capital flows. We remain NEUTRAL on Continental Europe and EM, and SHORT on Japan and the UK.​

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COSIMO RECCHIA
Senior Equity Strategist

FRANCESCO PONZANO
Junior Equity Strategist



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