We are turning tactically LONG (from previously NEUTRAL). We believe there is still room for stock prices to rise, supported by a series of positive catalysts that include a manageable impact from tariffs and the fact that both US and China want to avoid further escalation in the trade war.
We are turning tactically LONG (from previously NEUTRAL). We believe there is still room for stock prices to rise, supported by the following positive catalysts:
1) Recent trade war dynamics suggest that both the US and China want to avoid further escalation (our baseline scenario). Therefore, we expect that the tariffs announced on Liberation Day and subsequently paused will not be
implemented by the US administration on 9th July. At worst, we believe they will be postponed.
2) The impact of existing tariffs remains manageable. The US administration has focused on sectors where the negative consequences are minimal. The downside of the 10% global tariff is being softened, as it is partially absorbed by foreign exporters, domestic suppliers and inventory, so corporate margins are scarcely affected.
3) Macro prospects have deteriorated, though not collapsed. Given already very low expectations, economic activity remains relatively supportive of corporate fundamentals. In this context, we anticipate the upcoming earnings
season will deliver positive surprises.
4) Sentiment remains partly cautious, particularly in the US.
5) Seasonal trends are favourable: July has historically been a strong month for equities before the typical weakness in August and September.
That said, we acknowledge the following challenges:
1) The equity rebound has been strong, with the MSCI AC World Index up by 18pp from its April trough and now trading less than 2pp from its all-time high.
2) The geopolitical environment and news developments remain highly fluid.
Against this backdrop, we are now more constructive on the asset class, though we suggest building positions opportunistically given the still volatile environment.
From a regional perspective, the US remains our preferred market due to better earnings revisions and continued improvement in capital flows. We remain NEUTRAL on Europe and EM, and SHORT UK and Japan.
From a sector standpoint, we remain constructive on Cyclicals, with a mild preference for Growth sectors. We continue to selectively favour the Magnificent 7, as well as Banks and Diversified Financials on both sides of the
Atlantic.
Strategically, we reiterate our OVERWEIGHT stance on equities and view any market weakness as a buying opportunity.
At this stage, downside risks (such as a recession) and upside risks (including supportive fiscal policy and a potential peak in tariffs) appear balanced. Within this framework, we continue to favour Cyclicals over Defensives, with a bias towards Growth-oriented names. Regionally, we prefer the US, expecting its leadership in global equities to persist, driven by its Large Cap names.
COSIMO RECCHIA
Senior Equity Strategist
FRANCESCO PONZANO
Junior Equity Strategist
Download full document
Marketing material for professional clients or qualified investors only.
This material does not constitute an advice, an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any investment or security or to engage in any investment strategy or transaction. ANIMA can in no way be held responsible for any decision or investment made based on information contained in this document. The data and information contained in this document are deemed reliable, but ANIMA assumes no liability for their accuracy and completeness.
ANIMA accepts no liability whatsoever, whether direct or indirect, that may arise from the use of information contained in this material in violation of this disclaimer and the relevant provisions of the Supervisory Authorities.
This is a marketing communication. Please refer to the Prospectus, the KID, the Application Form and the Governing Rules (“Regolamento di Gestione”) before making any final investment decisions. These documents, which also describe the investor rights, can be obtained at any time free of charge on ANIMA website (www.animasgr.it). Hard copies of these documents can also be obtained from ANIMA upon request. The KIDs are available in the local official language of the country of distribution. The Prospectus is available in Italian/English. Past performances are not an indicator of future returns. The distribution of the product is subject to the assessment of suitability or adequacy required by current regulations. ANIMA reserves the right to amend the provided information at any time. The value of the investment and the resulting return may increase or decrease and, upon redemption, the investor may receive an amount lower than the one originally invested.
In case of collective investment undertakings distributed cross-border, ANIMA is entitled to terminate the provisions set for their marketing pursuant to Article 93 Bis of Directive 2009/65/EC.