News and events

04.17.2025

NEUTRAL IN THE MIST

We remain tactically NEUTRAL, as the geopolitical and macro environment remains highly fluid.

While market sentiment may stay subdued as reporting season unfolds and investors keep assessing recession odds, potential supportive fiscal policies and an easing rhetoric by the US administration pose significant upside risks for stock markets.

Against this backdrop, we are neutralising any previous regional preferences (previously Long Europe, NEUTRAL over US, EM, and UK, SHORT Japan) as pairwise correlation amongst equities tend to rise in a market dominated by headlines rather than fundamentals.

From a sector standpoint, we recommend a barbell approach (previously Defensive tilt). We still like defensive sectors like Utilities and Telecoms, relatively protected from trade war noise and stand to benefit from declining bond yields. Within Cyclicals we like Insurance and Diversified Financials, particularly Exchanges. We remain agnostic on Style.

Strategically, we reiterate our OVERWEIGHT stance on equities. At this stage, downside risks (recession) and upside risks (fiscal policy, tariff peak) appear balanced. However, valuations have compressed significantly, and market positioning is much clearer. 

A word of warning: We would place our strategic view under review (Negative Outlook) if the longer uncertainty persists regarding fiscal plans and/or the tariff stance of the US administration, as the higher the likelihood that weakening consumer and business sentiment will translate into actual data. At that point, poor valuations would no longer be a reasonable justification for continuing to bet on the stock market. Accordingly, we would downgrade our strategic view to UNDERWEIGHT. 

​In this scenario, we would expect stock prices to continue falling due to worsening EPS and further multiple compression.

Cosimo Recchia 
Senior Equity Strategist 
Investment Research


Marketing material for professional clients or qualified investors only. 
This material does not constitute an advice, an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any investment or security or to engage in any investment strategy or transaction. ANIMA can in no way be held responsible for any decision or investment made based on information contained in this document. The data and information contained in this document are deemed reliable, but ANIMA assumes no liability for their accuracy and completeness.
ANIMA accepts no liability whatsoever, whether direct or indirect, that may arise from the use of information contained in this material in violation of this disclaimer and the relevant provisions of the Supervisory Authorities.
This is a marketing communication. Please refer to the Prospectus, the KID, the Application Form and the Governing Rules (“Regolamento di Gestione”) before making any final investment decisions. These documents, which also describe the investor rights, can be obtained at any time free of charge on ANIMA website (www.animasgr.it). Hard copies of these documents can also be obtained from ANIMA upon request. The KIDs are available in the local official language of the country of distribution. The Prospectus is available in Italian/English. Past performances are not an indicator of future returns. The distribution of the product is subject to the assessment of suitability or adequacy required by current regulations. ANIMA reserves the right to amend the provided information at any time. The value of the investment and the resulting return may increase or decrease and, upon redemption, the investor may receive an amount lower than the one originally invested.
In case of collective investment undertakings distributed cross-border, ANIMA is entitled to terminate the provisions set for their marketing pursuant to Article 93 Bis of Directive 2009/65/EC.



​​

Chosen for you