News and events

04.23.2025

Checking alternatives

We remain tactically MODERATELY LONG, but we are now considering turning NEUTRAL if there is a further rally.

We remain tactically MODERATELY LONG, but we are now considering turning NEUTRAL if there is a further rally towards the 4.20% area. 
For the following reasons: 
1) Markets remain relative dovish on the Fed in 2025, pricing in more than 80bp in rate cuts in 2025, along with an additional cut in 2026 (compared to our baseline, which anticipates two rate cuts in 2025).
2) The supply/demand balance in USTs remains unfavourable and continues to deteriorate, even if President Trump fails to push through an aggressive budget. 
3) USTs may progressively lose some of their safe haven status as investors’ preferred risk-off hedge. 
Meanwhile, we continue to extend duration at 4.50-4.60%. 
For the following reasons: 
1) We have received confirmation that the Trump administration is sensitive to bond market performance and aims to keep the cost of debt under control, potentially setting a ceiling for USTs.
2) While Fed’s actions on rates remain constrained by the contrasting effects that tariffs may have on growth and inflation, we believe their hands are free when it comes to market liquidity issues, particularly post-Lehman. In the event of an adverse technical adjustment due to excessive volatility in the bond market, the Fed can (and in our view will) respond with ad-hoc liquidity instruments to restore financial stability, with no impact on monetary policy stance (as seen in the aftermath of the SVB crisis in March 2023). 
Strategically, we remain CONSTRUCTIVE with a NEGATIVE outlook, as the support for USTs from expectations of a growth slowdown may be offset by a temporary increase in inflation due to tariffs, by a more accommodative-than-expected fiscal stance and by the diversion of some foreign investor flows away from USTs and into other bond markets. 
That said, we believe the strategic outlook remains highly uncertain and may evolve in various directions, depending on how trade and fiscal policies develop over the coming months.


Chiara Cremonesi ​
Senior Rates Strategist 
Investment Research


Marketing material for professional clients or qualified investors only. 
This material does not constitute an advice, an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any investment or security or to engage in any investment strategy or transaction. ANIMA can in no way be held responsible for any decision or investment made based on information contained in this document. The data and information contained in this document are deemed reliable, but ANIMA assumes no liability for their accuracy and completeness.
ANIMA accepts no liability whatsoever, whether direct or indirect, that may arise from the use of information contained in this material in violation of this disclaimer and the relevant provisions of the Supervisory Authorities.
This is a marketing communication. Please refer to the Prospectus, the KID, the Application Form and the Governing Rules (“Regolamento di Gestione”) before making any final investment decisions. These documents, which also describe the investor rights, can be obtained at any time free of charge on ANIMA website (www.animasgr.it). Hard copies of these documents can also be obtained from ANIMA upon request. The KIDs are available in the local official language of the country of distribution. The Prospectus is available in Italian/English. Past performances are not an indicator of future returns. The distribution of the product is subject to the assessment of suitability or adequacy required by current regulations. ANIMA reserves the right to amend the provided information at any time. The value of the investment and the resulting return may increase or decrease and, upon redemption, the investor may receive an amount lower than the one originally invested.
In case of collective investment undertakings distributed cross-border, ANIMA is entitled to terminate the provisions set for their marketing pursuant to Article 93 Bis of Directive 2009/65/EC.




​​

Chosen for you