News and events

05.19.2025

RIDE THE (NEWS) FLOW

We remain tactically NEUTRAL, although we see increasing upside risks. Strategically, we reiterate our OVERWEIGHT stance on equities.

We remain tactically NEUTRAL, although we see increasing upside risks. We expect trade tensions to continue easing, US fiscal policy to potentially surprise on the side of further easing, and the US economy to remain resilient, likely avoiding a recession even into 2025.

While these tailwinds have already been partially priced in during the recent rally, we believe there is still room for stock prices to rise, given the currently light positioning.

Against this backdrop, we maintain a NEUTRAL stance due to the highly fluid geopolitical and macroeconomic environment, especially as we approach a seasonally unfavourable period. Nevertheless, we continue to recommend a buy-the-dip approach. 

From a regional perspective, we are upgrading the US to LONG (previously NEUTRAL) due to still-light positioning, likely improvements in earnings revisions, which have declined sharply in recent weeks amid tariff concerns, and improved corporate guidance following a year of overly cautious messaging. We remain NEUTRAL on Europe and EM; while downgrading the UK and Japan to SHORT (from NEUTRAL).

From a sector perspective, we are becoming more constructive on Cyclicals (previously barbelled), with a mild preference for Growth sectors (previously agnostic on style). We continue to selectively favour the Magnificent 7, along with Banks and Diversified Financials on both sides of the Atlantic. We downgrade tariff-insulated sectors such as Utilities and Telecom to NEUTRAL (from LONG), as we expect trade tensions to continue easing.

Strategically, we reiterate our OVERWEIGHT stance on equities. At this stage, downside risks (such as a recession) and upside risks (including supportive fiscal policy and a potential peak in tariffs) appear balanced. In this context, we prefer Cyclicals over Defensives, with a tilt towards Growth names (previously agnostic). Regionally, we favour the US, which has been among the hardest hit so far, expecting its IT and financial mega-caps to lead the performance, at least during the early stages of the rally.

COSIMO RECCHIA 
Senior Equity Strategist

FRANCESCO PONZANO 
Junior Equity Strategist
 



 
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